What is a bull trap, and how to identify it?

However, XYZ’s performance begins to falter and it drops to $30 over the course of a few months. The catalyst is that its cybersecurity software, Orion, may have been used by hackers to compromise US government networks. This uptick draws in the buyer “buy the dip” crowd, only to rip downwards and breakthrough the previous lows. Really can help you see what is “potentially” happening and you can make quick trading decisions based on that. So, remember if the market goes against you in a violent way, your stop thresholds have been wildly exceeded and you feel complete hopelessness. Remember to take a deep breath, relax and manage the trade. Sure, enough the market delivered a nice piece of humble pie right on time. Let’s first set the record straight, I am not suggesting that you should have huge stops of 30% or 40%.
The bull traps occur when prices start heading upwards, but then, out of nowhere, reverse and decline. This counter price move produces a trap and often leads to substantial sell-offs. This is a false selling signal that occurs when an equity that has been in a bullish pattern quickly reverses to the downside. Investors and traders sell the stock thinking that the rally is over. However, instead of continuing to fall, the stock reverses and moves past its prior high. Breakout trading profitability declined with the introduction of AI and particularly quantitative trading bots in recent years.

After the upthrust after distribution , the rallies were of poor quality and the down swings were impulsive and volatile with increasing of supply. These are the key characteristics of a bear market leading to a sign of weakness . Optimus Futures provides all the tools necessary to help you analyze and design the right future trading strategy. Our flagship Optimus Flow platform comes with hundreds of indicators, real-time news feeds, and an automated trading journal. As futures rallied back towards $4300, bulls hoping for a push higher were trapped in long positions. Futures fell back towards and past the recent low, making another low near $4060. We represented the difference of a bull trap and a dead cat bounce in the below image. So in order to do that, They pushed price a little bit higher to broke triangle resistance line and then trapped buyers with their big sell orders. A trade’s position size depends on your risk tolerance and market you’re trading on.

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Placing a large stop loss can get you out of the sticky situation when a bull trap happens. While it may be more of a novelty for most traders to think about, the most expensive stocks in the world are… I remember thinking, something must be wrong with my data feed. So, I went out to Google and typed in “CHTP quote” and again saw results of $2.50. To my grim surprise, CHTP in fact was trading in the $2.50s. This represented a loss of over 20% and a ~30% swing down from the previous days’ closing price. My next real-life example is of the biotechnology company Chelsea Therapeutics . This was my first trade of the New Year, so you can only imagine the psychological importance.

It does not have to be an all time high and we are looking for a bull trap in a bullish market, not a bear market. A bull trap is a kind of pattern or you may also call a trading setup that traps bulls into thinking that price is going to go up. For long-term investors, a bull trap opens an opportunity to buy a coin at a lower price when its value drops back to its previous level. Read more about sats coin here. Some traders may see this support break as an opportunity to enter a short position. Investors are always told to leave emotion out of their trading or investment decisions. However, there are times when confirmation bias sets in and we see what we want to see. The good news is that by taking a few simple steps, investors can protect themselves against the downside risk of a bull trap.

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Because the market moves so quickly in these situations and reacts to sentiment, it can be extremely difficult to distinguish a floor or upside reversal from a bull trap. If you’re an individual investor who trades individual securities or who makes frequent trades in your portfolio, you should keep an eye out for bull traps. You may buy shares at what you think is a cheap price, only to find that they keep losing value. A bull trap is when a market or security that is on a downtrend experiences a brief increase in value. Investors, aiming to buy when prices are low, begin purchasing shares, boosting prices briefly. The stock caught some upside momentum in early November and attempted to break above its October range resistance level but failed. Some simple tips I have learnt on how to trade or not to trade bull traps, what I look for, how to spot bull traps etc. For me personally, If price has traveled a long way to reach a major resistance level, I tend to be really reluctant to trade the breakout of the resistance level. Alternatively, you may choose to trade the bull trap intentionally and profit from the price decline.

The stock is attempting a rally but can’t muster any momentum. Candle ranges are small and pale in comparison to the range of the decline. I labeled each piece of evidence, which potentially would have tipped you off that this is a suboptimal long setup. So long as the price increase doesn’t exceed the most recent lower high, the downtrend is still intact. At its simplest, a downward price trend is a series of lower lows and lower highs. Advances in stock prices don’t necessarily change the trend. Any considerable amount of selling would send this stock soaring below its previous lows.

“Although bull markets offer plenty of opportunities to make money, they don’t necessarily help you become a better trader,” Reid said. He recommended investors and traders develop a “bidirectional mentality” to help put them in a position to understand in both bull and bear markets. Stop-loss orders can be helpful in these circumstances, especially if the market is moving quickly, to avoid letting emotion drive decision-making. Any chart pattern trader should be familiar with bull trap chart patterns as they are quite common in markets such as Forex, Futures, and the Stock market. A bull trap is the exact opposite of a bear trap and this bear trap forex trading strategy here explains what a bear trap chart pattern looks like as well. As with many things in trading, identifying a bull trap can be difficult. However, the best way to avoid bull traps is to spot warning signs in advance, such as low volume breakouts. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile which makes each change in price even more abrupt. That’s why it is important for a trader to know the differences between a trend change and a bull trap.

However, if these symptoms are not present, the crypto market remains at risk of falling further — which means taking on losses in your trading account. Are prices breaking resistance trend lines and overhead levels of horizontal resistance? If these resistance levels break, then it is safer to go long. One of the best ways to avoid the bull or bear trap is to check the volume. Should there be any changes to the asset’s value but the volume remains unchanged, it could signal a trap is coming. During the initial downtrend, range expansion will take place, indicating that momentum is strong. To reverse that trend, you need to see range expansion in which the trend moves higher and bounces.

What would happen if you stepped on a bear trap?

For this reason, when we are taking a trade against a resistance we are asking for trouble. Resistances are classic places where the price trend tends to change very often. Eventually, the “suckers” are forced to exit out of their long positions. Bull traps can emerge after a downturn appears to have been exhausted. Our gain and loss percentage calculator quickly tells you the percentage of your account balance that you have won or lost. From basic trading terms to trading jargon, you can find the explanation for a long list of trading terms here. For the last 8 years, we have been providing a wide range of trading-related blog articles, trading guides, podcast episodes and tons of trading videos on Tradeciety. Ever trade has 3 entries and whereas amateurs are either too early (entry 1 – predicting) or too late (entry 3 – chasing), professionals enter with confirmation. ● He did not execute the sell trade immediately but waited for a retest as confirmation. Look at the following image and see how a range forms before the trap.
So all those bullish traders who bought the breakout of the resistance level are now trapped when price starts falling back down and hitting their stop losses. There are no hard and fast rules when it comes to trading a bull or bear trap, which are unpredictable market movements by nature. The reason bull traps are tough for new investors is the emotional aspect of the trade. For most new traders you will enter your position with some level of apprehension because you are unsure about taking the position in the first place. The stock you were just worried about begins to rally and not just rally but does so with price and volume. Another common cause of bull traps is a false breakout from a consolidation pattern. The price breaks out of a range to the upside, but then quickly falls back down and resumes its downtrend. When we are in a bull market, you want to be on alert for this chart pattern at major resistance levels.
Lets say based on your analysis, you believe price will break that resistance level and head up. In these examples, I have highlighted my trades in penny stocks. While these charts will look crazy to traders of the S&P 100, the principles remain the same. I couldn’t believe I was caught in yet another bear trap similar to Znyga, but also that my losses were far greater. The risks of loss from investing in CFDs can be substantial and the value of your investments may fluctuate. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how this product works, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. This will help you to lock in as much profit as possible, while also cutting losses early on into a bull trap.

Trading volume should be higher than average to indicate momentum and mounting pressure for either a strong uptrend or market swings and reversals. Thus, low trading volume is a warning signal of potential bull and bear traps. In the case of a potential bull trap, having a high RSI and overbought conditions means that there is mounting selling pressure. Traders are looking to take their profits and are likely to exit the trade soon. As such, the initial breakout https://www.beaxy.com/exchange/btc-usd/ and uptrend may not be indicative of continuing price increases. Instead, the price will likely decline once these traders start selling the asset. However, by conducting careful technical analysis and fundamental analysis on the asset, traders can identify and avoid potential bull or bear traps. Below are some technical indicators and methods you can use. A dead cat bounce is a general term for any upward price movement that occurs during a strong downtrend.
The use of descriptions such as “best” are only for search purposes. Optimus Futures, LLC does not imply that you cannot find better tools or opposing valid views to our opinion. We do our best to share things based on our experience and scope of expertise. Besides knowing key support and resistance levels, it is also helpful to add some momentum tools to your chart overlay, like Bollinger bands.

What Happens You Are Caught In A Bull Trap Situation?

Now that you know what bear and bull traps look like, here are a few tips on how to avoid getting stuck in a trapped trade. It’s common for a bull trap to occur due to low trading volume. So if investors can confirm that the equity is trading around its average daily volume they can have more confidence that a genuine reversal is taking place. The most common way for investors to avoid a bull trap is to look for confirmation of the signal. For example, investors should see if there has been any new news about the stock that may be contributing to the bullish price movement. Sometimes a stock may move higher as part of a “halo effect” from a different stock within its sector. When traders are greedy, they tend to chase trades because they don’t want to miss out.

In my opinion, the best place to watch for bull trap setups to form in on resistance levels. We kick off the second half of the year on Friday, and historically it is one of the best days of the year. I suspect we will have a decent amount of volatility that will provide some trades, but lots of traders will be leaving early to enjoy the holiday weekend. It is possible to trade in bull traps and one of the most successful methods to do so is after a trend change downwards occurs.

He hopes to share those lessons amongst others through the podcast and help people realise that if he can make money investing, anyone can. It could be a bull trap following eight months of down trending. Currently, there isn’t much to do in this market other than some very short-term trading. We just have to wait it out and see how things develop down the road. After an ugly day of bear market trading, beware of what could hide ahead on Friday. A trend that has been continuously increasing is a potential sign of a bull trap, but not always.

• 78% of retail investor accounts lose money when spread betting and/or trading CFDs with this provider.
• Eventually, the “suckers” are forced to exit out of their long positions.
• You buy some and wait for the price to rise so you can sell it profitably.

This phenomenon is called a “bear trap” because it traps inexperienced traders trying to benefit from the fake bearish move. For example; if you see price make a false break of a major support level you could then look to get long with the trap’s momentum. As all the bulls who have been trapped have their stop loss orders executed by the market the momentum will pick up and the trap will be complete with price moving back lower. Just as price looks to be successfully breaking these areas the bear will enter their short trades not knowing they are about to be trapped. For example; price will be looking to breakout lower through a major support level, but after moving through the level it will quickly snap back in the other direction. In this trading guide you will learn exactly what the bear and bull trap is, how to not get caught in the trap and how you can use the trap in your own trading. A bull trap is a good way to realize profits quickly and avoid keeping an open position for a long time. People in disbelieve continue to hold on to their positions that suddenly turns into a loss. Traders who are aggressively buying are making huge profits, and the opposite party is selling, with the belief of price turning again. In this article, we will dig deeper into the concept of bull and bear traps.

I like to see a rush of momentum into the highs to have a higher probability of seeing a bull trap pattern take place. Another meaning for a bull trap is an “upthrust” and that term was coined by Richard Wyckoff. This is a chart pattern that I use quite regularly along with its cousin the bear trap when looking for trapped tradersand to profit from their actions. Bull traps, also called “dead cat bounce”, are common in crypto due to quick recoveries. For example, if the price of an altcoin has been rising steadily for the past few days, you might believe it will continue to rise. You buy some and wait for the price to rise so you can sell it profitably. But the opposite happens and you find yourself stuck in a bearish position. You witness the downtrend and then expect a bullish reversal when you can buy the downtrend, thinking you bought the asset at a good price. This is how the trap manifests itself when the price pulls back and returns to the downtrend.
The fall of the two digital currencies was caused by the fact that many investors wanted to liquidate their positions at the same time. Given the broader bearish trend in the S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, this is a great example of a bull trap. There are many possible reasons, which we’ll explore later on. But we just described something called a bull trap, which is the complete oppositive of the bear trap. Then a short price recovery happened, and some traders thought this is the bottom. However, the price got rejected by bears and went even lower. Another name of the Dead cat bounce is sucker rally, and it refers to naive investors or buyers who think the bear market is over. Whenever price passes a resistance, that resistance becomes support for further moves. Therefore, Pro traders wait for the price to retrace to the new support zone and then fill their buy orders.